Public-Opinion Polls : Should Turkey Call Early Elections?

Public-Opinion Polls : Should Turkey Call Early Elections?

TurkiyeRaporu

May 2022

Turkey Report  has been measuring the opinions of the society on early elections for about two years. When we asked this question for the first time in June 2020, the majority of respondents answered “no” with 61%. Back then trust in the government and the expectations of the society were much different than they are today. We have been asking this question regularly since June 2020. As the demand for early elections gradually spread to wider sections of the society, things are not going well for the government.

The dissatisfied group in society has expanded. Despite the increasing demand for early elections in society, the ruling wing continues to reject the possibility of early elections. On the opposition side, different names are mentioned for the joint candidate. While İmamoğlu announced that Kılıçdaroğlu was his candidate “like every CHP member”, Selahattin Demirtaş’s words of praise about Ekrem İmamoğlu in his statement from prison led to different interpretations. Mansur Yavaş, on the other hand, stated that the call for candidacy made by the leader of the Victory Party, Ümit Özdağ, was made without his knowledge, and he did not have such aspirations. When we look at the results we obtained over months, it is clear that the demand for early elections is increasing day by day. Although the opposition repeatedly calls for early elections, uncertainties about whether the opposition will nominate a joint candidate, who the joint candidate will be, and the distribution of cabinet posts raise questions about whether the opposition is prepared for early elections.

With a remarkable rate of 92%, HDP voters are the electorate group with the highest demand for early elections. 84% of CHP voters and 83% of İYİ Party voters support early elections. The support for early elections is quite dominant among the voters of the opposition parties.

39% of AK Party voters have a positive opinion about the early elections. Although more than half of this group of voters say that they do not support early elections, a significant number of participants call for early elections.

There is a difference of opinion among the MHP voters, another member of the People’s Alliance. Half of this group wants early elections, while the other half expresses a negative opinion on this issue.

The education group with the highest share (69%) of those who have positive opinions about early elections consists of participants with university and above degree. 61% of high school graduates, 67% of middle school graduates, and 58% with a primary level of education call for early elections.